American and Iranian negotiators have landed on the terms of a 60-day memorandum of understanding designed to extend the existing ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and kick off formal discussions about Iran’s nuclear program. The agreement, reached on May 28, is being described as tentative. It still needs sign-off from both President Donald Trump and Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

Trump has said he needs a few days to review the draft.

What’s actually in the deal

The core of the MOU is a 60-day framework. During that window, both sides would maintain the ceasefire that’s already in place and commit to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial shipping. The narrow waterway carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply.

The MOU would also formally open negotiations over Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

These negotiations build on a series of back-channel talks conducted throughout 2025 and into 2026, with Jared Kushner playing a key role in the diplomatic architecture.

Why crypto markets are paying attention

Bitcoin posted a modest increase in late May as optimism around the peace deal gathered momentum.

Polymarket, the prediction market platform where traders put real money behind their geopolitical forecasts, had the probability of a deal reaching 37% as of late May.

US authorities have previously seized Iranian-linked digital assets valued at approximately $344 million to $500 million. Those seizures underscore how sanctions enforcement has extended deeply into blockchain networks.

What this means for investors

A 37% probability on Polymarket means the market still thinks it’s more likely than not that this deal falls apart.

The next few days are the critical window. Trump’s review period is the immediate bottleneck. If he approves, the focus shifts to whether Khamenei reciprocates, and then to whether a 60-day framework can survive contact with the reality of US-Iran relations.