The US and Iran have struck a preliminary memorandum of understanding aimed at dialing back a conflict that has rattled global energy markets for months. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reached the deal on June 14-15, with a formal signing scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland.

Markets liked what they heard. Brent crude fell over 4% to around $77-80 per barrel, hitting three-month lows. Stock equity futures climbed. Bitcoin saw a modest uptick on broader risk-on sentiment.

What the deal actually includes

The MOU covers four major pieces. First, a 60-day ceasefire extension following the escalation triggered by US-Israeli strikes on February 28. Second, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil and LNG trade. Third, the lifting of the US naval blockade. And fourth, the beginning of nuclear program discussions, which could eventually lead to sanctions relief for Iran.

Pakistan and Qatar mediated the agreement, which both sides have characterized as an interim framework rather than a final peace accord.

Iranian tankers carrying approximately 5 million barrels have begun exiting the blockade area. Resumption of normal traffic is expected to be gradual, and shipping data showed minimal changes in vessel movements immediately after the announcement.

Over 38 vessels were reportedly hit during the recent conflict. When dozens of ships have taken fire in a narrow waterway, shipowners don’t rush back in because two governments signed a piece of paper.

Why traders are skeptical

The Strait of Hormuz is a 21-mile-wide bottleneck between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. Experts have openly doubted the durability of this ceasefire, pointing to past conflicts and compliance failures as reasons for caution.

Shipping data barely budged after the announcement. The formal signing on June 19 in Switzerland will be the first real test.

What this means for energy markets and crypto

Prior to this MOU, Iran had proposed alternative payment systems, including Bitcoin-based tolls of approximately $1 per barrel during earlier ceasefires, to bypass heavy sanctions. The latest MOU shifts the priority towards immediate de-escalation and economic reopening rather than establishing new digital asset payment structures.

Sanctions relief would reduce the incentive for sanctions evasion through digital assets, which could alter the regulatory conversation around crypto in Washington.

Investors should be watching three things closely. First, whether the June 19 signing actually happens on schedule. Second, whether shipping traffic through Hormuz normalizes in the weeks following. And third, how the nuclear program discussions progress, because that’s where the sanctions relief question lives. The 60-day ceasefire window is not long.