US, Iran in talks for potential 45-day ceasefire as market skepticism grows

The US, Iran, and mediators are in talks for a potential 45-day ceasefire. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 12% last week.

The April 7 market is pessimistic at 1% YES, a drop from 12% a week ago. The April 15 market is at 6.5% YES, down from 22%. The April 30 market is at 17.5% YES, declining from 40%. A 19-point increase between April 30 and May 31 suggests traders expect a catalyst in early May.

Trading volume is at $430,773 in USDC over 24 hours. A $12,367 movement cost for April 7 shows market vulnerability. The April 30 market, with $19,938 to move 5 points, is more stable but still affected by large orders. The May 31 market needs $17,165 for a similar move, indicating deeper liquidity.

Ceasefire talks indicate a diplomatic shift, but markets remain skeptical. With Trump’s ultimatum, traders are cautious about military escalation. A YES share for April 7 at 1¢ offers a 99x return, but the odds are slim for a quick diplomatic breakthrough.

Watch for CENTCOM statements or changes in Trump’s rhetoric. Announcements of talks or intermediary involvement by Oman or Qatar could impact markets.

Markets Impacted

• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.