After roughly 110 days of conflict, the US and Iran have signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding that commits both sides to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming nuclear negotiations. Crypto markets didn’t wait for the ink to dry.

Bitcoin jumped approximately 2% to a two-week high of around $65,844 following the announcement. Total crypto market capitalization swelled by roughly $60 billion.

What the Islamabad Memorandum actually says

The agreement, signed on June 17-18 by President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, was brokered with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif acting as mediator. The choice of venue gave the deal its name: the Islamabad Memorandum.

The Strait of Hormuz is the chokepoint through which an estimated 12.5 million barrels of oil pass daily.

The deal’s operational terms move fast. Iran commits to a 60-day toll-free safe passage arrangement for commercial vessels transiting the Strait. Full restoration of pre-war shipping volumes is targeted within 30 days.

On the American side, the US will begin lifting its naval blockade immediately, with full removal expected within 30 days. Temporary sanctions waivers on Iranian oil sales may also be issued for up to 60 days, though those are contingent on Iranian compliance with the agreement’s terms.

Additional provisions address respecting national sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs. There’s also a prospective $300 billion reconstruction initiative tied to the deal, though that figure is conditional on Iran holding up its end of the bargain. Oman has been mentioned for future discussions on long-term administration of the Strait.

What this means for investors

The most immediate implication is oil. If 12.5 million barrels per day start flowing through the Strait again on schedule, crude prices face meaningful downward pressure. The temporary sanctions waivers add another layer: if Iranian oil re-enters global markets even for a 60-day window, the supply shock could push prices lower still.

The MOU is a memorandum of understanding, not a treaty. The 60-day compliance windows create natural checkpoints where the deal could unravel.

The nuclear negotiation component is particularly fraught. The 2015 JCPOA took years of painstaking diplomacy and still didn’t survive a single change in US administration.

The $300 billion reconstruction figure is deeply conditional. If Iran doesn’t comply with the agreement’s terms, that money doesn’t flow.

The smart play is probably watching the 30-day naval blockade removal timeline as the first real test of whether this deal holds. If deadlines slip or compliance disputes emerge, that $60 billion in fresh market cap could evaporate just as quickly as it appeared.