US-Iran nuclear negotiations have broken down and a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz begins April 13, pushing the Polymarket military action against Iran contract for April 15 to 9.2% YES, up from 5% yesterday.

Market reaction

The April 15 military action market nearly doubled to 9.2% YES. The April 30 market moved more sharply, reaching 21.5% YES. Traders are pricing in higher escalation risk as the blockade takes effect.

The Trump agreement market saw no trades in the past 24 hours. With negotiations collapsed and a blockade now active, the odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief are low.

The UK strike market sits at 3.6% YES, largely unchanged, showing limited expectation of direct Western military involvement.

Total USDC volume across the military action markets is $6,516 over the past day, with a spike in April 15 trading after the blockade announcement. Thin order books mean even small trades can move prices significantly.

Why it matters

The naval blockade marks a shift from diplomacy to economic coercion. Trump has projected optimism about a deal, but the blockade and collapsed talks point in the opposite direction. Betting on a breakthrough in nuclear negotiations carries high risk absent any new diplomatic initiative.

What to watch

Pentagon briefings and public statements from US allies. Any operational changes from CENTCOM or shifts in rhetoric from regional partners could move these markets quickly.

API access

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.