The US and Iran are reportedly on the verge of signing a framework agreement to end their conflict, with a decision expected within 48 hours. The proposal, drafted by Pakistan, sets a 30-to-60-day window to negotiate the finer details, though nuclear issues have been deliberately left off the table.

President Trump said there is a “very good chance” of a deal.

What the deal looks like

Pakistan has served as the primary mediator since early April 2026, when a conditional two-week ceasefire kicked in on April 8. That ceasefire followed nearly six weeks of US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets.

The ceasefire was later extended, buying time for substantive talks. Key figures in the negotiations include US Vice President JD Vance and Pakistani Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, who has emerged as the critical go-between connecting Washington and Tehran.

As of May 18, Iran sent a revised peace proposal to the US through Pakistan. Trump responded by temporarily halting planned military strikes against Iran.

How crypto has tracked the conflict

Bitcoin has been remarkably sensitive to the ebb and flow of this conflict. During the escalation phase, prices dropped sharply as investors fled risk assets. When ceasefire news broke, Bitcoin rallied to multi-month highs. The range during the conflict period has been roughly $63K to $81K.

Ethereum followed a similar pattern, with both assets acting as real-time barometers of geopolitical risk appetite. Weekend trading sessions were particularly volatile, as crypto markets remained open while traditional exchanges sat idle, turning digital assets into the only liquid venue for expressing views on oil prices and risk sentiment.

The correlation between oil prices and crypto valuations during this period has been notable. Rising oil prices, which typically signal escalation, have coincided with Bitcoin pullbacks. Falling oil prices, signaling de-escalation hopes, have aligned with crypto rallies.

What this means for investors

If the framework agreement materializes, the immediate effect would be a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium that has been baked into nearly every asset class for weeks. For Bitcoin, which has been bumping against resistance near $81K, a credible peace deal could provide the catalyst to break through that level.

The 30-to-60-day negotiation window introduces its own uncertainty. Markets will need to price in the possibility that talks collapse, that the nuclear issue resurfaces prematurely, or that hardliners on either side torpedo the agreement.

For traders specifically, the lesson of the past six weeks has been clear: weekend liquidity in crypto markets during geopolitical crises creates outsized moves in both directions. Positions that look comfortable at Friday’s close can be underwater by Sunday night.