US-Iran peace deal odds plummet after Waltz comments on Trump’s threat

U.S. Ambassador Mike Waltz’s comments on Trump’s threat to target Iranian infrastructure have pushed prediction markets sharply lower. Odds for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026, dropped to 19.5%, down from 40% just 24 hours ago.

Market reaction

The April 22 peace deal market fell by more than half, while the April 30 market is now at 39.5%, down from 61%. The term structure shows traders expect a potential catalyst between April 30 and May 31, with a 22-point jump in that window. The May 31 market declined to 58.5%.

Why it matters

The Iranian demands market also fell hard. Odds of Trump agreeing to oil sanction relief in April dropped to 43.5%, a 15-point fall from 62% yesterday. The order book is thin: just $816 can shift the price 5 points, meaning a single large trade could easily move these markets.

Waltz’s statement signals a hardline U.S. approach, making a conciliatory move from Trump less likely. For a YES payout at 43.5¢ to make sense, traders would need to believe in a complete policy reversal within days. Given the current trajectory, that requires a significant diplomatic breakthrough.

What to watch

Any announcements from Islamabad talks or changes in Pentagon operational language. A shift in Iran’s stance or a new mediation proposal could move these markets quickly.

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