US-Iran talks resume in Pakistan, no Gulf strikes reported today

U.S.-Iran talks have resumed in Pakistan with no strikes in the Gulf today. The ceasefire-by-April-15 market is locked at 100% YES.

The resumption of talks in Islamabad, combined with no military action, suggests traders see a durable ceasefire. The April 30 and May 31 markets are also at 100% YES. The term structure is flat through December, with no expectation of increased hostilities at any point.

The military action against Iran market remains unresolved, but the lack of new strikes today and active diplomatic engagement point to a lower probability of further conflict. Odds for military action ending by April 2026 could trend toward a more confident YES if this holds.

No trades have been recorded in these markets recently, so the current odds reflect an absence of fresh capital betting against the diplomatic progress. Face value sits at $0, meaning any future movement depends on actual developments rather than speculation.

The absence of Gulf strikes today is worth noting, though it comes from a tier-3 outlet. For traders, this means the 100% YES reading may be noise rather than a reliable signal. At that ceiling, any breakdown in talks could create openings for contrarian bets if negotiations stall. Watch for confirmed dates or venues for follow-up rounds, and for any renewed military activity.

CENTCOM statements and announcements from the U.S. or Iranian delegations in Pakistan will determine whether the ceasefire odds hold or crack.

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