US-Israel airstrikes cause $500B damage in Iran, regime hardens stance

US-Israel airstrikes reportedly caused $500 billion in damages in Iran. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 now sit at 7.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday.

The airstrikes appear to have strengthened the Iranian regime’s hardline stance, making regime change less likely. The June 30 market is at 7.5% YES, compared to 8% a day ago and 6% a week ago. The April 30 market is nearly flatlined at 0.5% YES, with its resolution date just days away. The May 31 market dropped to 2.9% YES from 5% yesterday, showing traders are skeptical of any imminent regime collapse.

Market liquidity is decent, with $35,587 in USDC traded daily for the June market. The regime’s hardline response has clearly shifted sentiment downward. It takes $16,830 to move the market 5 percentage points, which points to institutional-grade thickness. The largest move was a 1-point spike yesterday — the regime retains its grip on power even after devastating strikes.

The crackdown on opposition and retention of military capabilities point to a more entrenched regime. At 7.5¢, a YES share on June 30 pays $1 if the regime falls, a 13.3x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in a significant internal disruption within the next 67 days.

Keep an eye on IRGC command changes or mass protests with significant military defections. These are the catalysts that could shift this market.

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