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A ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran has been confirmed, effective April 7-8, as reported by the Jerusalem Post. The “Islamabad Accords” ends 39 days of hostilities, pushing the odds of a ceasefire by April 15 to
Every active sub-market for a US-Iran ceasefire has now resolved at 100% YES. The April 15 market moved from 18% to 100% in a matter of days. The April 30, May 31, June 30, and December 31 markets all followed, reaching certainty.
Volume hit $3.23M in actual USDC over the past 24 hours. With all sub-markets resolved, further price movement is unlikely unless new tensions emerge. The sharpest single price move came as the ceasefire was confirmed.
The ceasefire was mediated by Pakistan with backing from Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, and China. It leaves unresolved issues including Iran’s leadership transition and nuclear program, both of which could affect long-term stability. For traders, the resolved markets offer no immediate opportunities, but the underlying geopolitical situation remains unsettled.
Traders should watch Tehran’s political maneuvers, potential sanctions relief, and further intermediary activity. The role of IRGC leadership and regional intermediaries will shape the post-ceasefire environment.
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