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The US-Israel military offensive against Iran has shut down the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil flows and benefiting Russian energy exports. Crude oil predictions for June now show a 20% increased probability of hitting $90, driven by supply disruptions.
Market reaction
The Trump’s Military Operations in Iran market shows a decreased likelihood that Trump will announce an end to military operations against Iran by March 1, 2026. With the Strait of Hormuz closed and regional tensions high, the probability of a YES resolution is falling. The Crude Oil Predictions for June market is more bullish on oil prices reaching $90 by the end of June, as the crisis tightens oil supply.
Why it matters
Russian oil revenues are surging due to the Hormuz closure and temporary waivers on sanctions. This gives Russia a financial cushion for its ongoing operations in Ukraine. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting supply constraints directly affect roughly 20% of global oil transit, making the $90 crude target more plausible than it was before the offensive began.
What to watch
Buying YES at current odds is a speculative play on oil hitting $90, with the Hormuz closure as the primary supply-side driver. Watch for announcements from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, or Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak. Statements from either could move these markets quickly.
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