US-Israel operation shakes Iran, ceasefire expected by April 15

Operation Epic Fury, a joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign, has shaken Iran’s regime but left it in control of the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire by April 15 is fully priced at 100% YES, up from 12% a day ago.

Market reaction

Markets moved sharply on the ceasefire announcement. The April 15 market jumped 24 points at 10:34 PM and now sits at 100% YES. The April 30 market also hit 100% YES after a 16-point spike. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market dropped to 8.5% YES.

Why it matters

Trading volumes show where attention is concentrated. The ceasefire markets saw combined 24-hour USDC volume of $5,188,952, compared to just $93,869 in the regime fall market. The regime market is thin: only $10,002 is needed to shift odds by 5 points, making it vulnerable to larger trades.

The death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei suggests instability, but Iran’s continued control over the Strait of Hormuz keeps the regime fall market’s odds low. The ceasefire market, by contrast, reflects confidence in a formal truce. Buying YES at 8.5¢ pays 11.8x if the regime collapses by June 30.

What to watch

Track the IRGC’s internal moves and any public appearance by Khamenei’s successor for signs of regime durability. The Assembly of Experts’ activity could also signal shifts in leadership dynamics.

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