US, Israel plan large-scale bombing campaign against Iran next week: Col. MacGregor

Col. Douglas MacGregor anticipates a large-scale bombing campaign by the U.S. and Israel against Iran next week. The market for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 sits at 15.5% YES, down from 26% yesterday.

MacGregor’s statement coincides with sharp drops across related markets. The Iran peace deal market fell roughly 10 points in a day, with traders pricing in lower odds of any de-escalation. The Iranian uranium stockpile surrender by April 30 sits at 18.9% YES, down from 37% a day ago. Traders are clearly skeptical that Iran will negotiate while facing the prospect of military strikes.

The peace deal market has $275,572 in USDC traded, and the order book is thick: it takes nearly $20,000 to move the odds 5 points. The Iranian uranium market is far thinner, with just $557 needed to shift odds by 5 points.

At 17¢, a YES share on Iran surrendering its stockpile by April 30 pays $1, a 5.88x return. For that bet to pay off, you’d need to believe in a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough within 14 days, precisely when a retired colonel with a public following is predicting bombs.

Watch for CENTCOM announcements or statements from Iranian leadership. Any shift in U.S. or Israeli military posturing would directly affect both markets.