The US-Israeli conflict with Iran has inflicted at least $25 billion in losses on companies worldwide, a toll driven by disrupted energy supplies, paralyzed shipping routes, and ballooning insurance premiums across some of the most critical trade corridors on the planet.

The Strait of Hormuz problem

Roughly 20% of global petroleum flow passes through the Strait of Hormuz. When military tensions escalate in the region, disruption to shipping operations around the strait has been significant enough to trigger emergency surcharges from major carriers. CMA CGM, one of the world’s largest container shipping companies, has imposed emergency fees ranging from $2,000 to $4,000.

Oil price forecasts suggest crude could surge to between $100 and $200 per barrel if the conflict intensifies further.

The global growth hangover

Both the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund have flagged the conflict as a meaningful drag on global output. Their warnings suggest global GDP growth could slow by up to 0.3 percentage points in 2026. Prolonged conflict could push global growth down to around 2%, while inflation could climb above 6% next year, driven primarily by the elevated cost of energy and logistics.

Maritime insurers have increased premiums for vessels transiting conflict-adjacent waters, and some underwriters have pulled coverage entirely for certain routes.

What this means for investors

Shipping and logistics companies present a complicated picture. Surcharges like those imposed by CMA CGM boost near-term revenue but also signal underlying instability that can deter trade volumes over time. Investors watching this space should pay close attention to forward booking data and contract renegotiation cycles.

The gap between $100 oil and $200 oil represents the difference between a manageable economic headwind and a full-blown global energy crisis. Companies that have already absorbed $25 billion in losses are pricing in the former scenario.