Initial jobless claims came in at 226,000 for the week ending June 13, down from 230,000 the prior week. The number landed squarely within the range that economists had been targeting, somewhere between 225,000 and 230,000.

Continuing claims, which track the number of people still collecting unemployment benefits, hit 1.81 million for the week ending June 6. That’s a slight uptick from the recent range of 1.795 million to 1.8 million.

The numbers in context

The 226,000 figure represents a modest improvement after initial claims had touched 229,000 in the week of June 6, which marked a multi-month peak.

The four-week moving average, which smooths out week-to-week volatility, sits in the low-to-mid 219,000 range.

The insured unemployment rate has held steady at roughly 1.2%. At 1.2%, the vast majority of insured workers remain employed.

The continuing claims figure of 1.81 million deserves a closer look. While initial claims measure new layoffs, continuing claims reflect how long it takes displaced workers to find new jobs. A gradual creep upward could signal that the job market is becoming slightly less dynamic, with fewer openings absorbing unemployed workers.

What the Fed is watching

The Federal Reserve has been threading a needle for the better part of two years: keeping monetary policy tight enough to suppress inflation without crushing the labor market. A stable labor market with low layoffs typically reduces the urgency for rate cuts. Higher rates mean a stronger dollar, tighter financial conditions, and a higher opportunity cost for holding non-yielding assets like crypto.

What this means for investors

The continuing claims figure nudging above 1.8 million is the one metric to circle on your calendar going forward. If that number continues drifting higher over the next month or two, it could signal a softening that eventually forces the Fed’s hand.

Watch whether continuing claims settle back toward 1.8 million or push toward 1.85 million.