US employment figures could be revised higher for the first time in years, adding to evidence that the labor market remains stronger than previously thought.

Early records from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages suggest the economy created roughly 230,000 more jobs through December 2025 than currently reflected in monthly payroll data, according to Access Macro economist Guy Berger.

The records cover about three quarters of the period that will be used to calculate the annual benchmark revision for March 2026.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its preliminary estimate on August 28, with the final revision expected to be incorporated into official employment figures early next year.

Even a modest upward revision would reverse a three year stretch in which annual updates repeatedly showed that job growth was weaker than initially reported.

The most recent benchmark reduced the March 2025 seasonally adjusted employment level by 898,000 jobs, or 0.6%.

Monthly payroll estimates are based on surveys of businesses and government agencies. The annual benchmark replaces those estimates with more comprehensive employment records drawn largely from state unemployment insurance filings.

Those records cover about 97% of jobs included in the establishment survey, but they are released with a significant delay.

Standard Chartered economists estimate that employment increased 1.3% between March and December 2025, slightly above the 1.2% growth currently shown in monthly payroll figures.

The possible upgrade comes as recent labor data have already challenged expectations of a slowdown.

The economy added 172,000 jobs in May following a revised gain of 179,000 in April, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%.

Economists say some of the measurement problems that produced large downward revisions may be fading.

Slower immigration could be making labor force growth easier to measure, while changes to the model used to estimate employment at newly created and closed businesses may be bringing monthly payroll estimates closer to underlying records.

A positive revision could also influence the Federal Reserve debate.

Some officials have pointed to weak job creation as evidence that restrictive monetary policy was creating risks for the labor market.

Stronger revised employment figures would weaken that argument and support the view that the economy can withstand higher interest rates.

The revision would not guarantee another rate increase, but it would remove one reason for policymakers to turn more dovish.