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The US military’s plan to seize Iran’s uranium stockpile at Trump’s request has stirred the pot. US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 is down to 7.5% YES, a drop from 10% just 24 hours ago.
Traders are reacting to signals of potential escalation. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 now sits at 7.5% YES, while the April 15 market is at 19.5% YES. The biggest term spread is between April 15 and April 30, jumping 19 percentage points, suggesting traders expect a key event in mid-April. The US forces entering Iran by April 30 sits at 57% YES, indicating increased expectations of ground operations.
Ceasefire markets saw volume at $1,324,478 in USDC over the last 24 hours. The order book depth shows $45,401 is needed to move the April 7 market by 5 points, indicating decent liquidity. However, the largest price move in this period was a modest 3-point drop, reflecting cautious sentiment amid new developments.
The risky plan hints at a shift in strategy, potentially escalating the conflict beyond airstrikes. This is bearish for ceasefire prospects, as traders see increased odds of US ground operations. A YES share for the ceasefire by April 7 at 8¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 12.5x return. Believing in this requires optimism for diplomatic breakthroughs in the next 6 days—a tough sell amid current rhetoric.
Watch Congressional War Powers discussions and CENTCOM’s next moves. Any Pentagon confirmation of special forces operations would likely push the odds for US forces entering Iran higher.
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