US missile stockpiles depleted in Iran conflict, rebuilding expected

The U.S. has depleted critical missile stockpiles in the ongoing conflict with Iran, potentially limiting future military capacity. The odds of a U.S. declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, sit at 7.5% YES, down slightly from 8% yesterday.

Market reaction

The exhaustion of Patriot missile interceptors and other munitions points to reduced capacity for sustained military operations, which may explain the dip in war declaration odds. The market for a war declaration by April 30 is effectively dead at 0.4¢ YES, showing minimal expectation for near-term escalation.

The term structure shows a 7-point jump between April 30 and December 31, meaning traders expect any potential developments to come later in the year. Moving the market 5 percentage points requires $4,248, and actual USDC volume over the past 24 hours is $370.

Why it matters

The depletion raises direct questions about U.S. readiness for conflict against peer adversaries. The current ceasefire with Iran provides a temporary pause, but missile stockpile replenishment timelines are long, which could deter further aggressive action. At 7.5¢, a YES share pays 13.3x if a war declaration occurs by year-end.

What to watch

Traders should monitor Congressional moves or statements from President Trump or Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. Changes in military posture or diplomatic developments could shift the odds quickly.

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