Mortgage applications in the US dropped 2.7% for the week ending July 10, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey. That marks the second straight week of declines, following a 2.2% seasonally adjusted drop the prior week.

The average 30-year fixed rate sat at roughly 6.64% as of July 10.

The Independence Day effect that wasn’t

MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni noted that mortgage application volumes were “little changed” during the week surrounding Independence Day, suggesting the holiday didn’t meaningfully distort the data this time around.

The prior week’s data was arguably worse when viewed without seasonal adjustments. On an unadjusted basis, applications dropped 12% for the week ending July 3. The seasonally adjusted figure of 2.2% smoothed that out.

Why 6.64% feels like a wall

For over a decade before 2022, Americans got used to rates in the 3-4% range. Some locked in rates below 3% during the pandemic. Going from that to nearly 7% isn’t just a number change. It’s the difference between a $2,100 monthly payment and a $2,800 one on a median-priced home.

Both purchase applications and refinance applications contributed to the weekly decline.

What this means for macro and markets

It’s worth noting that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have permitted crypto holdings like Bitcoin to be considered in mortgage qualification processes. But Fratantoni’s data suggests these crypto-adjacent developments haven’t moved the needle on actual application volumes. Traditional demand factors, namely rates and home prices, still dominate the equation.