Keir Starmer has called out Iran for economic harm in the Strait of Hormuz as the US naval blockade begins today. The market for another country conducting military action against Iran by April 30 is at 22% YES.

The US blockade reverses the direction of recent diplomatic talks. The market for military action by April 15 is at 9.2% YES, up from 5% just 24 hours ago. That near-doubling suggests traders see a possible catalyst within the next three days. The April 30 market is more active, consistent with expectations of a drawn-out standoff.

The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April has seen little movement, with no trades reported. In the current military environment, traders appear skeptical that concessions are coming.

Combined USDC volume across the military action markets is $6,516. Order book depth is thin: it takes just $447 to move the April 15 odds by five points. That kind of shallow liquidity means a single large trade could cause sharp price swings.

Starmer’s criticism signals the UK’s position more than it changes the immediate situation. The blockade raises the stakes. A YES share at 22¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 4.5x return that requires belief in further escalation.

Watch for statements from Trump, Starmer, and Netanyahu. Any shift in diplomatic tone or military posture could move these markets quickly.

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