Two US Navy destroyers crossed the Strait of Hormuz as part of a mine-clearing operation without engaging Iranian drones. The market for a US invasion of Iran before 2027 sits at 0%.

The lack of engagement fits an ongoing de-escalation pattern. The market for other countries conducting military action against Iran by April 15 is at 9.2%, up from 5% a day ago. No incident during the transit suggests traders are pricing in stability over escalation.

The April 30 market is at 21.5%, down from 28% a week ago. The term structure points to a perceived diplomatic window, with a 12-point spread between the April 15 and April 30 contracts.

Total USDC traded in these markets is $6,516 over the last 24 hours. Just $447 moved the April 15 market 5 points. The largest move, a 3-point spike at 1:19 PM, likely came from a single order. These are thin markets where modest capital moves prices significantly.

This transit coincides with ongoing peace talks in Islamabad. At 0¢, a YES share for a US invasion pays $1 if it resolves, but current diplomacy makes that scenario remote. No military engagement by other countries reinforces the low odds.

Watch for CENTCOM statements or changes in Pentagon operations. The peace negotiations are the primary driver; any shift in diplomatic language or military posture would move these contracts.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.