US Navy intercepts 13 ships amid Iran conflict, impacting oil prices

The U.S. Navy interdicted 13 ships in the U.S.-Iran conflict, and the Polymarket odds for the Strait of Hormuz blockade being lifted by May 31 have dropped to 82.5% YES, down from 86% yesterday.

Market reaction

In the Strait of Hormuz blockade market, the April 17 contract sits at 4.5% YES. The April 19 odds have also dropped to 11% YES. Traders are pricing in almost no chance of a near-term resolution, with the probability falling off steeply the shorter the timeframe.

Why it matters

The blockade and increased naval enforcement put upward pressure on crude oil prices. The odds for crude oil hitting $90 by June 30 are not explicitly quoted on Polymarket, but a prolonged blockade restricts roughly 20% of global oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz. If the blockade persists or tensions escalate, oil prices could spike further.

Trading context

Actual trade volume across all related markets was $27,587 in the last 24 hours. Moving the May 31 odds by 5 percentage points costs $1,416, which means this is a thin market where moderate-sized trades move prices. The largest move was a 2-point spike at 2:38 AM, showing how sensitive pricing is to breaking news. A YES share on the blockade being lifted by May 31, priced at 82¢, offers a low return given current odds. For traders who think a resolution before June is likely, the payout is slim relative to the risk of the blockade continuing.

What to watch

Any statements from Donald Trump or Iranian officials on negotiations or escalation. Updates on further naval engagements or additional ship interdictions. Movement in the April 17 and April 19 contracts, which will be the first to resolve and could signal whether the May 31 market reprices.

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