The U.S. Navy has turned back 10 Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, enforcing a blockade amid Iran’s threats to disrupt Persian Gulf shipping. The market for Trump announcing the blockade is lifted by April 17 is at 9% YES, down from 8% yesterday.

## Market reaction

The May 31 announcement market is at 83% YES, creating a wide gap with the near-term contracts. April 19 is at 15% YES. Traders are pricing in no immediate resolution but expect the blockade to end sometime before late May.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30 is at 6% YES. The UK sending warships through the Strait by April 30 is also at 6% YES, consistent with expectations of continued disruption.

## Why it matters

USDC volume across the blockade lifting markets was $28,673 in the last 24 hours. It takes $1,423 to move the May odds by 5 points, meaning the book is liquid enough for larger players to enter without massive slippage. The largest price move was a 4-point spike in April 17’s odds at 4:42 PM.

Iran’s retaliatory threats continue, and without a diplomatic breakthrough, the market sees little chance of near-term de-escalation. At 6¢, a YES share on the April 17 contract pays $1 if the blockade lifts, a 16.67x return. Possible US-Iran weekend talks have been floated, but no concrete progress has materialized, keeping odds low.

## What to watch

Trump’s tone in upcoming press briefings and any new US-Iran negotiation announcements, particularly involving Oman or Qatar as intermediaries, could move these contracts quickly.

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