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U.S. officials proposed supplying Iran with uranium for peaceful purposes, but Vice President Vance opposes any enrichment. The market for a ceasefire by April 15 sits at 100% YES, though talks remain stalled.
The ceasefire by April 15 market is flat at 100% YES with no active trading or volume. The April 30 and later sub-markets also sit at 100% YES, meaning traders see no short-term shift despite the uranium offer. The absence of trading activity indicates no one is taking new positions on this news.
The broader US-Iran permanent peace deal market remains uncertain, with odds and volumes not detailed. The uranium offer paired with Vance’s opposition to any enrichment points toward reduced chances of a permanent deal by April 22. A deal would require resolving Iran’s enrichment rights and Strait of Hormuz control, which neither side has shown willingness to concede.
Iran’s rejection of U.S. conditions and stalled talks with Pakistan keep escalation risk high. The uranium offer is a diplomatic gesture, but without Iran’s acceptance it’s symbolic. Traders holding YES shares for a ceasefire by April 15 should watch whether conditions change before that deadline.
Watch for moves from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, or changes in rhetoric from Trump or Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi. Resumed talks or a shift in tone from either side would be the clearest signal of market movement.
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