US reclassifies medical marijuana, impacting cannabis markets

The US Justice Department’s decision to reclassify state-regulated medical marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III has shaken cannabis sector markets on Polymarket. “Weed rescheduled by December 31?” sits at 44.5% YES, down from 62% yesterday.

The December 31 market dropped to 44.5%, while the June 30 market fell to 10%, down from 34% a day ago. The largest single price move was an 8-point spike in the December 31 contract at 12:30 PM, briefly touching 74% before settling back. With 252 days left until the December resolution, traders are repricing the timeline for formal rescheduling.

Combined markets saw $96,741 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours. The order book is thin: it takes just $775 to swing the December 31 odds by 5 points, which means further regulatory news could cause outsized moves. The June 30 market’s 16-point drop signals traders think rescheduling won’t finalize by then.

The reclassification resolves a federal-state conflict and eases federal barriers, but stops short of nationwide legalization and doesn’t guarantee quick implementation. At 45¢, buying YES for December 31 pays $1 if it resolves, a 1.22x return. That wager requires believing regulatory actions will complete by year-end. Current odds reflect real uncertainty about implementation speed.

Watch for key signals: a DEA final rule published in the Federal Register or an expedited hearing announcement could push odds higher. Legal challenges or delays from the Attorney General or GOP senators could push them lower.

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