US redirects 38 ships amid Iran blockade, escort operations unlikely by April 30

US Central Command has redirected 38 ships amid the naval blockade against Iran, and the probability of US escort operations through Hormuz by April 30 has dropped to 2.1% YES, down from 7% yesterday.

Market reaction

The US Escorts Through Hormuz market has fallen from 18% a week ago to 2.1%. With six days left until resolution, traders are pricing in continued blockade enforcement rather than any shift to escort operations.

In the Strait of Hormuz Traffic market, odds of traffic returning to normal by May 15 have fallen to 15.5% YES. A 2-point spike hit at 3:48 PM, but the overall trend remains bearish as the blockade continues disrupting shipping.

Why it matters

Volume in the US Escorts Through Hormuz market was $1,276 in USDC over the last 24 hours. It takes only $732 to move prices 5 points, and the largest single move was a 2-point drop at 11:47 AM. This is a thin market where modest trades can move prices significantly.

The intensified enforcement makes immediate escort operations unlikely. At 2¢, a YES share pays $1 if the US conducts an escort by April 30, a 48x return. Betting YES here requires believing a sudden policy shift or diplomatic breakthrough is imminent.

What to watch

Any official announcements from CENTCOM or the Pentagon on a change in strategy. A briefing from Trump or General Dan Caine could shift market sentiment if they signal potential escort operations.

API access

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.