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The U.S. agreed to release some of Iran’s frozen assets to secure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz as part of a two-week ceasefire deal, with the “US x Iran ceasefire by April 15” market at
The asset release is a component of the Islamabad Accord, which requires Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the U.S. halts further strikes. This has pushed up expectations in the US-Iran Permanent Peace Deal market, though the information originates from social media sources, which limits its weight. The US x Iran ceasefire market holds at 100% YES across all active dates.
No recent trades or volume have been reported in the ceasefire market. The 100% price likely reflects the ceasefire already being in effect rather than active new positioning. Without trading activity, the odds are based on prior expectations, not fresh conviction.
The frozen asset release moves the situation toward de-escalation, but the path from a two-week ceasefire to a permanent peace deal is long. A YES share in the peace deal market, if priced low, could pay well if the next two weeks of negotiations produce results. The Strait blockade ending removes one flashpoint, but recent military exchanges keep the broader risk elevated.
Traders should watch for announcements from the Islamabad talks, particularly from intermediaries like Pakistan. Any shift in Iranian demands or U.S. concessions could move these markets. The next signals will likely come from White House briefings or Iranian state media.
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