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The U.S. launched a rescue operation after Iran claimed a U.S. fighter jet went down over Iran. Odds for U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 have jumped to 65.5% YES, up from 55% just a day ago.
Operation Epic Fury’s complexity grows with this development. The April 30 market shows a significant climb in odds, indicating increased trader confidence in direct U.S. military involvement in Iran. The December 31 market also rose to 74.5% YES.
A notable 9-point jump between April 30 and December 31 suggests traders expect major developments by late April. The March 31 market remains dormant at 0.1% YES, showing skepticism about immediate ground operations.
The April 30 market is active, with volume at $2,338,269 in USDC traded daily, reflecting strong interest. The order book needs $185,131 to move the price by 5 points, indicating institutional-grade depth. A 6-point drop at 1:12 AM shows market sensitivity to new information.
This rescue mission signals a shift from air-based operations to integrated strategies involving ground elements. A YES share for April 30 at 66¢ pays $1 if U.S. forces enter Iran by then—a 1.5x return. This bet hinges on the U.S. pivoting to ground operations in the next 28 days.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM and the Pentagon for confirmation or denial of ground operations. Hegseth’s next briefing or any Congressional War Powers discussion could also affect the odds.
Markets Impacted
- US forces enter Iran by March 31? — currently 0.1% YES
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 65.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 74.5% YES
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