US sanctions seven Iran-backed militia leaders in Iraq

The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) blacklisted seven commanders from Iran-backed militias in Iraq, freezing their assets for coordinating attacks on U.S. interests. The likelihood of Trump agreeing to Iranian demands for sanction relief in April is currently at 52.5% YES.

The sanctions target leaders from groups like Kata’ib Hizballah, consistent with a continued U.S. hardline posture toward Tehran. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian demands dropped from 34% 24 hours ago. The market for Trump’s agreement to Iranian demands in April trades at a daily volume of $1,977 in actual USDC, with a $286 cost to move the price 5 percentage points.

The largest price move has been a 2-point drop, suggesting traders are skeptical about U.S. concessions. Ongoing tensions and stalled nuclear negotiations form the backdrop: new sanctions add pressure without military escalation, and they cut against the idea that a deal is close.

At 52.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump agrees to Iranian demands by April, a 2.78x return. For that bet to pay off, you’d need to believe a diplomatic breakthrough is imminent despite the administration actively expanding its sanctions list.

Watch for statements from U.S. Ambassador Tom Barrack and CENTCOM, along with any White House communications, for signals of a shift toward a potential U.S.-Iran agreement.

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