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Two US ships attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing tensions. The likelihood of a U.S. invasion of Iran by 2027 sits at 0% YES, unchanged from 0% a week ago.
The market for a U.S. invasion of Iran remains inactive, with no expectation for immediate military escalation. The attempted crossing is more a signal of intent than a concrete step toward invasion. Traders appear to read the posturing as saber-rattling rather than a move toward conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of global oil. U.S. attempts to assert navigational freedom could prompt further Iranian military responses, but the odds of a full-scale invasion remain unchanged. Iran’s control over the strait has already cut commercial shipping by over 90% since March.
The market remains thin, with no significant trades pushing odds. The absence of substantial trading suggests traders treat this as noise rather than a real shift toward invasion. No new ground deployment or major political announcements have materialized to move the market.
Watch for statements from Admiral Brad Cooper or the White House. Any confirmation of increased military presence or diplomatic shifts could change trader positioning.
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