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U.S. special forces rescued F-15 crew members in Iran amid rising tensions. Ceasefire by April 7 sits at 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday. U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 is at 86.5% YES, up from 62% a day ago.
The April 7 ceasefire market dropped sharply, showing skepticism about de-escalation. The April 30 market also fell, now at 17.5% YES, down from 24% yesterday. Traders are cautious due to Trump’s ultimatum on the Strait of Hormuz, which heightens tensions without diplomatic signals.
The April 30 forces entry market surged to 86.5% YES. The SEAL Team 6 operation indicates a growing U.S. military presence. Market odds suggest traders expect ground operations soon.
Ceasefire markets trade $3.76M daily in face value, with real-dollar volume at $431K. It takes $12,352 to move the April 7 odds by 5 points, showing vulnerability to large orders. The forces entry market trades $5.07M in USDC daily. It requires $84,737 to shift 5 points, indicating strong institutional interest.
The rescue operation and Trump’s stance make a ceasefire unlikely soon. A YES share at 1¢ in the ceasefire market pays $1 if resolved, a 100x return, but a diplomatic breakthrough is needed in four days. The forces entry market suggests significant military engagement is expected.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or the Pentagon; changes in rhetoric could impact both markets. Trump’s next address or updates from Hegseth are key indicators.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 86.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 90.5% YES
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