A US strike on Mashhad International Airport damaged an Iranian passenger plane amid escalating tensions. All sub-markets for Iran’s military action against other countries by April 30 are priced at 100% YES, meaning the market treats Iranian retaliation before month’s end as a certainty.

Market reaction

The market for Israeli military action against Iran by April 14 jumped to 24% YES, up from 10% a day ago. Traders are pricing in a potential breakdown of the ceasefire and possible Israeli responses. The April 21 sub-market sits at 46% YES, suggesting traders see roughly coin-flip odds of a significant Israeli military move within the next week.

Why it matters

The attack hit a civilian aircraft at a major international airport. Combined 24-hour face value across these markets is $335,643, with $58,601 in actual USDC traded. The largest single move was a 9-point drop in the April 14 market, likely from a large sell order. Market depth shows it takes $1,205 to move the April 14 odds by 5 points, meaning the book is thin and vulnerable to swings from sizable trades.

What to watch

For traders, Iranian retaliation is priced at certainty. Buying YES at 100¢ offers no payout unless the situation de-escalates unexpectedly. On the Israeli side, the April 21 market at 46% YES offers a potential 2.17x return if hostilities resume.

Watch for statements from Abbas Araghchi and Anwar Gargash, and any developments from the ongoing US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad. These could signal whether the ceasefire holds or breaks down.

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