A U.S. team led by JD Vance is heading to Pakistan for Iran talks, with Trump demanding nuclear disarmament. The ceasefire-by-April-21 market sits at 13% YES, up from 6% yesterday.

Market reaction

A 5-point spike at 11:03 AM pushed odds from 12% to 18% before settling. The April 21 market is pricing in potential escalation if talks falter.

The permanent peace deal by April 22 market dropped hard, now at 19.5% YES from 40% yesterday. Trump’s firm demands on nuclear abandonment make a comprehensive agreement less likely on that timeline. The April 30 market also fell, sitting at 41.5% YES.

Why it matters

Iran’s participation in the talks remains unconfirmed. Daily volume on these markets is $7,248 in USDC, and the order book is thin: just $880 can move the ceasefire odds 5 points. That means even moderate trades swing this market significantly.

What to watch

A YES share in the ceasefire market at 13¢ pays 6.25x if Trump announces an end, but this bet depends on the talks collapsing within 3 days. Watch for statements from Trump or Vance, particularly any indication of meeting Iranian leaders or concessions on either side.

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