US to block ships at Iranian ports amid Strait of Hormuz crisis April 13

The US will block ships entering or leaving Iranian ports starting April 13 at 10 a.m. ET. This move comes amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, and the market for Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April is at 0.0% YES.

Market reaction

The US-Iran ceasefire market shows 100% YES by April 15, but the blockade announcement calls those odds into question. The ceasefire by April 30 is also at 100% YES, which looks disconnected from the current escalation. The blockade and collapsed talks point to a hardened US position, making ceasefire resolution by mid-April unlikely.

Why it matters

The gap between 100% ceasefire odds and an active naval blockade suggests the markets haven’t priced in the escalation. The blockade raises the probability of further military confrontation between the US and Iran before 2027. The US invasion of Iran market currently shows no activity, but a naval blockade is a concrete step up the escalation ladder.

The blockade gives the US direct control over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and could choke Iran’s oil exports. For traders, this is a bearish signal for any diplomatic resolution market. A YES share at 0¢ pays $1 if Trump agrees to Iranian demands, which at current odds reflects the hardline US stance.

What to watch

Watch for statements from CENTCOM or diplomatic moves from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. Any shift in military posture or renewed talks would change the calculus in these markets.

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