US to end Iranian, Russian oil waivers, tightening global supply

Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US will not renew oil waivers for Iran and Russia. The Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief in April? market dropped to 3% YES, down from 14% yesterday.

Market reaction

The market traded $71,089 in face value over the past day, with $7,777 in actual USDC exchanged. It takes only $119 to shift the price by 5 percentage points, which makes the market vulnerable to large single trades. The biggest move was an 8-point spike at 12:08 PM, but the sustained decline afterward shows traders are not betting on a policy reversal. With 6 days left until resolution, the contract has settled into single digits.

Why it matters

Bessent’s statement removes ambiguity about the administration’s position on Iranian and Russian oil sanctions. If waivers expire, global supply tightens, with some analysts projecting crude prices could push toward $90 by June. The combination of non-renewal for both Iran and Russia at once concentrates enforcement pressure on two major producers simultaneously.

What to watch

At current levels, a YES share trades at 3¢, offering a 33.3x return if an improbable reversal occurs. Any buyer at that price would need to believe the administration contradicts Bessent’s public statement within days. Watch for any communications from the White House or the Office of Foreign Assets Control before the end of April. Absent a direct contradiction from the administration, this market is likely heading to zero.

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