US to restart Iran talks amid 2026 war, troop increase in Middle East

The US plans to restart talks with Iran amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, pushing the permanent peace deal by April 22 market to 25.5% YES.

The US-Iran Ceasefire market already sits at 100% YES across all dates, pricing in a resolution as certain. The US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Locations market shows “no qualifying meeting by June 30” at just 3.2% YES, meaning traders expect an actual meeting to happen soon. The permanent peace deal by April 30 market moved to 37.5% YES, showing guarded optimism about a longer timeline.

In the Diplomatic Meeting Locations market, just $218 is enough to swing the odds by 5 percentage points, a sign of thin liquidity. The permanent peace deal market trades $444,446 in USDC daily, a far more liquid book.

The troop increase alongside renewed diplomacy suggests a dual approach: building negotiation leverage while preparing for escalation. Restarting talks is a positive signal but doesn’t guarantee a deal. At 26¢, a YES share pays $1 if a permanent peace deal materializes by April 22, a 3.85x return. That bet requires a fast diplomatic breakthrough within days.

Watch for statements from Trump, Secretary of State Rubio, and intermediaries from Oman and Qatar. Announcements of scheduled talks or shifts in military posture could move these markets quickly.

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