US urges UN for maritime coalition to secure Strait of Hormuz navigation

The US has urged the UN to form a maritime coalition to ensure freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The probability of the United Kingdom sending warships by April 30 sits at 1% YES, unchanged after initial resistance from potential allies.

The coalition call could nudge odds for UK warship deployment, but previous hesitations from Japan, Australia, and European nations temper expectations. With just six days left until the market resolves, stagnant odds suggest traders see little chance of a sudden diplomatic breakthrough. The sub-market for UK involvement is at 1% YES, down from 12% a week ago.

On the broader Strait of Hormuz traffic market, odds of traffic normalization by May 15 have dipped to 18.5% YES. US mine-clearing efforts and the call for international naval support have not moved the needle. The largest shift in the last 24 hours was a 2-point spike, showing some volatility but no sustained trend.

Trading volumes confirm the skepticism. The UK warship market trades $233 in USDC daily, with $783 required to shift the price by 5 points. That’s thin enough that one large order could skew the odds. The broader traffic market has more liquidity at $36,459 in daily USDC volume, requiring $4,658 to move 5 points, which points to stronger trader conviction but still limited optimism.

The coalition call, without immediate commitments from allies, reads more as a diplomatic gesture than a market-moving event. A YES share on UK warship deployment at 1¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 100x return, but the price reflects how unlikely traders consider rapid UK action.

Watch for official statements from the UK Ministry of Defence or allied naval movements. A confirmed deployment would be a major catalyst, but without concrete steps, this market stays at long-shot levels.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.