The U.S. used deception operations to rescue a downed airman in Iran while Vice President Vance engaged in talks with Iran to signal intent without escalating conflict. The U.S. invasion of Iran market sits at 0% YES, consistent with a controlled approach that avoids full-scale military commitment.

In the Israel military action against Iran by April 14 market, odds are at 24% YES, up from 10% yesterday. Traders are pricing in potential action within the next two days. The Israel military action against Iran by April 21 market is at 46% YES, a 22-point jump over the seven-day extension, which points to traders expecting a specific catalyst in the coming week. The another country’s military action against Iran by April 15 contract trades at 9.2% YES.

Combined 24-hour trading volume across these markets reached $58,601 in actual USDC. The largest single move was a 9-point drop in the Israel action market at 1:55 PM. Order book depth shows it takes $1,205 to move the Israel action market by 5 points, which indicates moderate liquidity.

The U.S. preference for tactical operations and diplomacy over direct confrontation compresses the probability of broader conflict. At 24¢, a YES share for Israel’s military action by April 14 pays $1 if it resolves, a 4.2x return. That bet requires conviction that Israel acts within two days. Failed talks or new military developments could shift these odds quickly.

Watch for Vance’s next diplomatic moves and any CENTCOM statements on troop deployments. Both would directly affect how these contracts reprice.

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