Two U.S. VIP jets landed in Islamabad carrying Vice President JD Vance ahead of Pakistan-brokered peace talks with Iran, and the U.S.-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market now sits at 100% YES.

The market for U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 remains at 100% YES, unchanged since last week. The December 31 market also holds at 100% YES, meaning traders still expect continued military engagement even alongside today’s diplomatic activity.

The ceasefire markets have moved sharply. The April 15 market is at 100%, up from 18% a week ago. The April 30 and May 31 markets are also at 100% YES. Traders are pricing in a diplomatic breakthrough tied to the upcoming talks.

The ceasefire market’s 24-hour USDC trading volume is at $3.2 million, but the thin order book depth means large trades could have outsized effects on price. The jump from 18% to 100% YES was driven by the high-profile U.S. presence in Pakistan, and may be an overreaction to diplomatic optics. With YES shares at 100¢, there is zero risk premium priced in. Unless a ceasefire announcement comes soon, buyers at this level are exposed.

Watch for Iran’s actual participation in the talks, any changes in Israeli military actions, and statements from intermediaries. These will determine whether the market holds or corrects.

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