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US Vice President JD Vance left Islamabad on Air Force Two after more than 15 hours of trilateral peace talks with Iran. The Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end market reflects the diplomatic activity, while odds for Trump out as President by June 30 sit at
The talks involved Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner. No announcement of an end to the ceasefire came out of the meetings, which reduces the near-term probability of Trump declaring its termination. The absence of a breakdown in talks is the most directly tradeable signal here.
Vance’s participation without any immediate aggressive follow-up points toward continued dialogue rather than escalation. The US appears to be pursuing a diplomatic track to manage regional tensions. But no formal resolution was announced, and traders should price in that gap between “talks went fine” and “talks produced an agreement.” A YES share in the ceasefire market carries that ambiguity.
Watch for statements from the White House or updates from Pakistan’s mediation role. Confirmation of a permanent ceasefire or an official end to Operation Epic Fury would move these markets sharply.
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