The United States men’s national soccer team has not won a World Cup knockout match in 24 years. That changes on July 1, or it doesn’t, and the host nation’s tournament ends with the kind of heartbreak that American soccer fans have come to know intimately.

The USMNT faces Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, with an 8 p.m. ET kickoff.

A drought that predates the iPhone

The last time the US won a World Cup elimination game, it was 2002. The opponent was Mexico. The score was 2-0.

Since that victory in South Korea, the US has lost three consecutive World Cup knockout matches. Three tournaments, three exits at the first elimination hurdle.

The US enters the match ranked No. 15 in the world by FIFA. Bosnia and Herzegovina sits at No. 61.

Bosnia’s quiet case for an upset

Bosnia and Herzegovina were outscored 6-5 in the group stage. They conceded goals, but they also scored five, which means they can hurt you.

The US has not beaten a European team in a World Cup knockout match since 2021. That’s a 0-3 record against European opposition in elimination games, a stretch that covers multiple coaching staffs and player generations.

What needs to happen for the US

Christian Pulisic is the obvious focal point. He’s the player most likely to produce a moment of individual brilliance that can unlock a tight game.

For American soccer, this match represents something larger than a single result. The 2026 World Cup is a generational opportunity for the sport in the US. A host nation knocked out in the Round of 32 by the 61st-ranked team in the world would be, to put it gently, a public relations disaster for a sport still fighting for mainstream attention in a crowded American sports landscape.

The US is favored. The rankings say so. But World Cups are not decided by rankings. They’re decided by 90 minutes, sometimes 120, occasionally penalties. And in those high-pressure minutes, the USMNT has been on the wrong side of history for a very long time.