SpaceX is about to become the largest IPO in history. Wall Street’s first batch of analyst coverage suggests investors might want to pump the brakes before buying at launch prices.

Morningstar initiated coverage on SpaceX in June 2026 with a fair value estimate of $780 billion. That sounds enormous until you realize the IPO is expected to price around $135 per share, targeting a valuation of $1.75 to $1.8 trillion. In other words, Morningstar thinks the stock will be roughly 48-55% overvalued on day one.

The biggest IPO ever, by a wide margin

SpaceX is aiming to raise approximately $75 billion through its public offering, a figure that dwarfs every previous IPO in market history. The shares are expected to trade on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, with a retail tranche comprising around 30% of the offering.

The deal is being shepherded by Wall Street’s heaviest hitters. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan are all backing the offering, and they’ve hosted exclusive pre-IPO events featuring Elon Musk himself.

Musk currently holds approximately a 40% stake in SpaceX. That position will be locked for at least one year following the IPO.

Analysts say wait for a better entry point

Morningstar’s $780 billion fair value estimate is the most specific public figure so far, but it’s not the only voice urging caution. NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran, widely regarded as the dean of corporate valuation, conducted his own independent assessment after reviewing the prospectus. His conclusion: SpaceX could be worth between $1.2 and $1.3 trillion. That’s considerably more generous than Morningstar’s number, but still sits meaningfully below the IPO’s target valuation range.

Even at Damodaran’s more optimistic range, buyers at IPO pricing are paying a premium of roughly $450 to $550 billion over estimated fair value.

The ripple effects could hit your other holdings

BNP Paribas flagged a concern that extends well beyond SpaceX shares themselves. The French bank projected that retail investors could trigger up to $50 billion in selling across other asset classes, particularly semiconductors, to free up capital for their IPO allocations.

Semiconductor stocks, which have been among the most popular retail holdings in recent years, appear especially vulnerable to this reallocation trade.

What this means for investors

The bull case for SpaceX is not hard to articulate. The company dominates commercial launch services, operates the Starlink satellite internet constellation, and has a development pipeline that includes missions to Mars.

The consistent message from early analyst coverage is that the IPO valuation already prices in an extraordinary amount of future success. Morningstar’s estimate implies that investors buying at $135 are essentially paying today for value the company may not create for years.

The lock-up period on Musk’s 40% stake means a significant supply overhang looms roughly a year after listing. For traders, a $50 billion wave of selling, if BNP Paribas’s estimate proves accurate, could create meaningful dislocations in semiconductor and other high-beta retail favorites as investors rotate capital toward their SpaceX allocations.