Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders vote on $111B merger with Paramount Skydance

Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders are voting today on a $111 billion merger with Paramount Skydance Corporation, backed by Larry Ellison’s family office. The Polymarket contract on “Richest Person on December 31, 2026” prices Ellison at 1% YES.

Market reaction

The Ellison contract has not moved from 1% YES despite the merger’s significant premium. Trade volume is $3/day face value with $0 actual USDC, so the market is essentially dormant. With 252 days until resolution, even a small position could shift the price.

Why it matters

The WBD board and proxy advisor Glass Lewis both recommend approval, which points toward the deal going through. The merger is expected to close in Q3 2026. If it does, Ellison’s net worth could increase meaningfully, though the 1% price suggests traders see little chance he overtakes whoever leads the global wealth rankings by December 31.

The deal includes a $0.25 per share ticking fee if closing is delayed past September 30, 2026, which creates pressure to finalize on schedule. Still, Ellison’s ranking among the world’s wealthiest depends on more than one transaction. Movements in Oracle’s stock price and the broader tech sector will matter just as much.

What to watch

Regulatory clearance announcements for the merger and any material changes in Ellison’s other holdings (primarily Oracle) are the most likely catalysts. Concrete post-merger financial projections could also prompt traders to reprice the contract.

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