White House: Iranian threat reduced after US-Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan

The White House announced that the threat from the Iranian regime has been significantly reduced, pushing odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 down to 8.5% YES from 12% just 24 hours ago.

The announcement follows a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, brokered by Pakistan on April 7. The ceasefire requires Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt military operations. The June 30 market dropped 3.5 percentage points in YES odds over the past day.

Trading volume is at $93,869 in USDC daily. The order book depth shows it takes $10,002 to move the price 5 percentage points, which points to a relatively thick market. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 1-point spike, suggesting traders aren’t willing to bet on regime instability without concrete signs of collapse.

The ceasefire and the White House statement point toward temporary stabilization, making regime change by June 30 less likely. A YES share at 8.5¢ pays $1 if the regime falls, a 11.8x return. For that bet to pay off, negotiations would need to break down or an unexpected military escalation would need to occur within the next 83 days.

Watch for developments from the negotiations set for April 11 in Islamabad. Any shifts in Iranian military posture or statements from CENTCOM could move the market.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.