William Blair cuts Coinbase estimates but keeps Outperform rating, betting the crypto slump is almost over
The firm slashed EBITDA projections by 34% while arguing that the worst of the trading volume drought is behind us
William Blair cut its Coinbase revenue estimates by 12% for 2026 and 13% for 2027, chopped EBITDA projections by a full 34% for both years, and then turned around and reiterated its Outperform rating on the stock.
The numbers behind the downgrade
William Blair initiated coverage on Coinbase with an Outperform rating back in June 2025. Revenue expectations for 2026 came down 12%. For 2027, they dropped 13%.
The EBITDA cuts are even more striking. A 34% reduction for both years signals that the firm’s original thesis on trading volume recovery was too aggressive. Coinbase’s last twelve-month EBITDA sits at roughly $1.00 billion, and William Blair now expects that figure to trough in the second half of 2026 before rebounding the following year.
Coinbase shares are trading at $161.50, which represents a 58% decline over the past year.
Why keep the bullish call?
The analyst described current volume expectations as conservative. The thesis hinges on casual traders returning as Bitcoin climbs off its lows.
William Blair also flagged that both Coinbase and Circle, the stablecoin issuer that went public under the ticker CRCL, are well-positioned to capture upside from a Bitcoin recovery. The firm noted that the market now genuinely understands the risks embedded in these businesses.
What the rest of the Street thinks
BTIG recently lowered its price target on the stock to $260. US Tiger Securities went the other direction, upgrading Coinbase to a Buy rating with a $200 target. Baird, meanwhile, maintains a Neutral stance with a target of $142, below where the stock currently trades.
What this means for investors
William Blair’s revised estimates acknowledge that trading volumes have dried up. A 34% EBITDA cut reflects a trading environment where the casual retail trader has gone dormant.
The key variable to watch is Bitcoin’s price action in the second half of 2026. William Blair’s thesis rests on the idea that Bitcoin is near a bottom and that its recovery will pull retail traders back into the ecosystem. The company’s cost structure is relatively fixed, which means incremental trading volume drops almost straight to the bottom line.
William Blair’s framing of Circle as a paired trade alongside Coinbase suggests the firm sees the stablecoin infrastructure layer as equally leveraged to a crypto recovery.