William Blair just took a machete to its Coinbase financial projections, trimming 2026 revenue estimates by 12% and 2027 estimates by 13%. The firm also cut EBITDA forecasts by a brutal 34% for both years, pointing to persistently weak trading volumes across the crypto market.

Here’s the twist: William Blair still rates Coinbase an Outperform.

The numbers behind the downgrade

The July 15 analyst note landed while Coinbase shares sat at $161.50, a price that represents a 58% decline over the past year.

The revisions trace back to Coinbase’s Q1 2026 earnings report, which was, to put it diplomatically, a miss. The company posted $1.41 billion in revenue against a consensus expectation of $1.52 billion. It also reported a loss of $1.49 per share.

The culprit was transaction revenue, which fell 40% year-over-year. For a company whose business model is essentially a tollbooth on crypto trading, fewer cars on the highway is an existential problem.

William Blair’s thesis centers on Coinbase’s fixed cost structure. The company’s expenses don’t shrink proportionally when trading volumes drop. The 34% EBITDA cut for both 2026 and 2027 reflects this dynamic. Revenue falling 12-13% cascades into profitability at roughly three times the rate, because those fixed costs don’t budge.

Why Outperform still stands

William Blair initially started covering Coinbase with an Outperform rating back in June 2025. At the time, the firm projected that EBITDA would bottom out in the second half of 2026 before staging a recovery. Despite the fresh cuts, that thesis hasn’t changed.

The key variable, according to the analyst note, is Bitcoin’s price trajectory in the second half of 2026. William Blair argues that Bitcoin’s movement will determine whether casual retail traders re-enter the market. Those retail traders are the high-margin customers that exchanges like Coinbase depend on for transaction revenue. Institutional traders negotiate lower fees. Retail traders pay the full toll.

A divided analyst community

Baird has a Neutral rating with a price target of $142, which sits below the current trading price of $161.50. BTIG, on the other end of the spectrum, has a target of $260. The gap between $142 and $260 spans more than $118 per share.

William Blair also flagged Circle, the stablecoin issuer that trades under the ticker CRCL, as a potential beneficiary if Bitcoin stages a comeback.

What this means for investors

The 40% year-over-year decline in transaction revenue isn’t just a bad quarter. Coinbase’s fixed cost structure means the company is particularly sensitive to volume swings in both directions. William Blair is essentially betting on this asymmetry: if trading picks up even modestly, profitability could recover faster than the revenue line suggests.

The Baird target of $142 represents a world where volumes stay depressed and Coinbase continues bleeding. The BTIG target of $260 represents a world where Bitcoin rallies, retail floods back in, and that fixed cost structure becomes a profit amplifier instead of a drag.