Penalties are supposed to be free goals. A shooter twelve yards from a goalkeeper with almost no time to react. Through July 10, just 39 of 60 penalties have found the net during the tournament. That 65% success rate, covering both in-play spot kicks and shootout attempts, is the lowest single-tournament conversion rate in six decades. The historical average hovers well above 70%.

Prediction markets are having their moment

Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction platform that became a household name during the 2024 US election cycle, has spun up dedicated markets around the penalty drought. Its “World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties” market alone has attracted over $1.29 million in volume.

Combined prediction market volumes across platforms hit staggering figures in June 2026. Kalshi, the regulated US exchange, exceeded $30 billion in monthly volume. Polymarket itself reached $10.8 billion.

Fan tokens ride the emotional rollercoaster

Argentina’s $ARG token and Portugal’s $POR token have both seen sharp volatility as their respective squads navigate the knockout stages. A missed penalty that eliminates a team doesn’t just end a World Cup dream. It can crater a token’s price in minutes.

Underpinning much of this activity is Chiliz ($CHZ), the layer-1 blockchain that powers the Socios fan token ecosystem. As the infrastructure layer for fan token trading, $CHZ functions somewhat like a picks-and-shovels play on World Cup speculation. When fans trade $ARG or $POR, the Chiliz network processes those transactions.

Why penalties are missing and why it matters for traders

The expanded 48-team format has introduced more matches, more fatigue, and more penalty situations with unfamiliar combinations of shooters and keepers. Prediction platforms have adapted their tools to reflect live tournament outcomes, creating a feedback loop where on-pitch events immediately ripple into token prices and contract values.

The projected global betting market around the 2026 World Cup sits at roughly $50 billion. That figure encompasses traditional sportsbooks, regulated exchanges, and crypto-native platforms.

The risk is equally clear. Fan tokens remain highly speculative and can lose most of their value when a team exits the tournament. Prediction market positions on penalty outcomes are essentially binary bets with no fundamental value beyond the event itself. Regulatory scrutiny of crypto-based sports betting is intensifying in multiple jurisdictions as volumes climb into the tens of billions.