China’s President Xi Jinping has urged an immediate ceasefire and restoration of normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran ceasefire extension by April 21, 2026, market is at 69.5% YES, down from 86% yesterday.

Xi’s call came amid escalating US-Iran tensions and triggered a sharp repricing in the US-Iran ceasefire extension market, which dropped over 20 points from 86% YES to 69.5%. With three days left before expiry, volume is at $82,767 in USDC daily.

The UK warships through the Strait by April 30 market sits at 8.5% YES, down from 12% yesterday. Xi’s diplomatic push may reduce the likelihood of UK warship deployment if negotiations gain traction. At $304 to move 5 points, though, this market is thin enough that a single large order could shift it meaningfully.

At 64.5¢, a YES share on the ceasefire extension pays $1 if extended by April 21, a 1.55x return. The core question is whether three days is enough time for talks to produce a result, given that Xi’s intervention appears to have made traders less confident rather than more.

Watch for any CENTCOM response or statements from European leaders. A UK Ministry of Defence announcement or a Trump Truth Social post could move both markets quickly.

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