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Xi Jinping met with Cheng Li-wun, resolving the prediction market on whether the meeting would occur by June 30. The market now sits at
The meeting occurred with 81 days remaining before the deadline. Traders had been pushing odds upward in recent days, and the confirmation snapped the market to a definitive 100% YES. The market saw $98,080 in face value traded in the past 24 hours, virtually all of which was actual USDC.
The market for Xi meeting Cheng by June 30 traded close to $98K in actual USDC daily. The order book has thick depth on both sides, indicating strong participation. The meeting’s confirmation removed any remaining uncertainty, locking in the outcome well ahead of the deadline.
This event matters because it signals China’s dual approach of diplomatic outreach to Taiwan’s pro-unification opposition while maintaining military pressure. Beijing’s willingness to meet with Taiwan’s opposition leaders could shift Taiwan’s internal political dynamics and affect future cross-strait relations. For traders, the market is now resolved with no further room for movement, but the political fallout may feed into related markets.
Watch for Cheng Li-wun’s public statements following the meeting and any response from Taiwan’s ruling DPP. Both could move related geopolitical markets on Polymarket.
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