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Xi Jinping met with Taiwan’s opposition leader, Cheng Li-wun, in Beijing as part of efforts to promote peace and oppose Taiwan independence. The market on whether Xi would meet Cheng by June 30 now sits at
Market reaction
The meeting confirms a YES outcome. Odds had already climbed from 98% a week ago to 99% yesterday, and the meeting itself removes any remaining uncertainty. Traders had been positioning for this outcome after signals from Xinhua and the Taiwan Affairs Office. Daily trading volume is at $97,802 in USDC.
Why it matters
The meeting is a strategic move ahead of Taiwan’s 2026 local elections and a potential Trump-Xi summit. For traders, it signals de-escalation through dialogue with Taiwan’s opposition, and the Kuomintang could gain political ground from the engagement. That said, the PRC’s stance on separatism is unchanged, and the meeting doesn’t alter broader cross-strait dynamics on its own.
What to watch
Follow-up statements from the Taiwan Affairs Office and any response from the Democratic Progressive Party will shape how this meeting affects cross-strait relations and Taiwan’s domestic politics heading into 2026.
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